Mechanism of Politics

by Lee, Chang Hoo

Chapter 1. Basic Principles of Political Phenomena

A. General Principles of Political Phenomena

(3) Basic Theory of Mathematical Politics

b. Political choice and action

People always behave in the following manner because they strive to increase their own profits[Tab.1.1](c).

[Ch.1.5] Every individual() strive to maximize the size of their survival capacity().

This content can be expressed mathematically as the conditions for a political actor's choice (political behavior).

[Fmla.1.5a] (Selection condition) : The benefit of the selection is greater than the cost. [Fmla.1.5b] (Critical condition) : The size of the benefit and cost of the selection is the same. [Fmla.1.5c] (Rejection condition) : The benefit of the selection is smaller than the cost.

An example of this can be seen in the United States, where the most important factor when the president persuades someone is to convince them that what the White House wants is in their own best interest, that is, that they should do what they think is right for themselves. In the early 20th century in China, the ruling group of the Qing dynasty who longed for the emperor was more likely to accept the arguments of the pro-reform faction rather than wait for power to change through violence, as it was more beneficial for them. At that time, they were under great pressure from overseas exiled reformists who demanded a constitutional monarchy and from revolutionary groups such as the Sun Yat-sen, and they chose the side that was more advantageous for them. People followed the religious founder Mohamad, who led political success, because they saw it as a result of choosing to increase their own benefits. Gorbachev attempted reforms because he thought that the Soviet Union was in a crisis and that the benefits of the reforms would be greater than the cost of the system changes brought about by the reforms. After the 2003 Iraq War, the Saddam Hussein regime was toppled and Sunni Arabs organized resistance because the political loss of their status became greater after the US military occupation.

In all these cases, it is easily noticeable that each individual or group aims to increase their own benefit. Similar can be said about people's political interest (not choices).

This political actor's interest conditions can be expressed mathematically using the change rate of benefit and cost.

[Fmla.1.6a] (Preference condition) : Profit increases over time. [Fmla.1.6b] (Critical condition) : Profit stays the same. [Fmla.1.6c] (Avoidance condition) : Profit decreases over time.

The increase in profit means the ease of survival, while the decrease in profit means the difficulty of survival. Everyone likes it when survival is easier and dislikes it when it becomes more difficult.

For example, in January 2016, Samsung Electronics became the number one global smartphone market share, but its competitor Huawei's fourth quarter shipments in 2015 increased by 35.26% compared to the previous year, while Samsung's shipments only grew by 9.12% compared to the previous year. Samsung's concerns are deepening, but the core of these concerns is the declining market share in the near future, which will result in a decrease in total sales revenue, not the fact that it is currently in the red.

If we now specify a particular period, i.e., the time frame from to , and denote the political benefit as and the political cost as , each is determined as follows.

[Fmla.1.7]

As seen from above, the difference between the conditions of interest and choice of a political actor lies in whether the political actor focuses on the rate of change in benefits and costs or on the total amount of actual benefits and costs. (Expressed as derivatives in the formula) The rate of change in benefits and costs indicates the extent to which benefits and costs increase or decrease. If benefits increase, political actors will be happy, and if costs increase, they will be worried. However, such rates of change are not enough to directly cause political actions. What is important is the total amount of final benefits and costs. Even if the cost increase and the benefit increase decrease, if the total amount obtained still has benefits greater than costs, there is no need to change the current situation.

<Every footnote was deleted from the book>