Mechanism of Politics

by Lee, Chang Hoo

Chapter 0. Contents of this book

(3) Mathematical Model

I pursue a theory that explains political phenomenon through a quantitative approach while exploring political phenomenon from a political phenomenological perspective. The reason for using a quantitative approach is because it has many benefits. Firstly, it allows for the collection of appropriate data from many historical cases. Secondly, it makes theoretical debates clearer. Thirdly, it enables the discovery of the randomness of variables in empirical analysis.

The ultimate goal of this quantitative approach is to explain political phenomenon through mathematical models, essentially, the mathematization of politics. As a preliminary step, I will partially present mathematical models that explain political phenomenon. However, even if you read this book without mathematical models, I will arrange it so that there is no difficulty in understanding the content. To do this, I will separate the discussion on mathematical models in each chapter.

Concerned with the immediate goal of this book, mathematical models are not a large part. But in the long-term study of politics, the construction of mathematical models is important. Therefore, the next publication will present a system of mathematical politics to explain the majority of political phenomena. (Most readers who are not political science majors may not read this book.) To put it ahead of time, it was necessary to rough out the overall system of mathematical politics while composing the mathematical models presented in this book. This is because if the mathematical models presented later cannot be connected to each other, it would be a waste.

From an academic or the author's perspective, considering the logical order, it might be better to present the system of mathematical politics first before writing this book. However, from the reader's perspective, it may be the opposite. Reading a book about politics filled with mathematical formulas may not be understandable if the content being explained is entirely new.

When I began constructing a mathematical model, many scholars showed a skeptical reaction, especially when they were well aware of politics. They said, "Well… if it works well, it could be a significant work, but it's probably impossible…" This is a quote from one of the professors at Seoul National University. The core of this skepticism lies in quantification. The starting point of mathematical models is numbers, and the key to political phenomena must be quantitatively measured. In economics, all (or at least the essential parts of) economic phenomena are expressed in terms of money, so it seems possible to describe them with mathematical models. However, is the case not the same with political phenomena? For example, how can the problem of legitimacy be represented in numbers?
My response to this is that the distinction between "fact about ideology and ideology as value" has already been partially explained. Firstly, what I am trying to explain with the mathematical model is limited to political phenomena. And the question of how legitimate any part of someone is, is not the concern of the mathematical model I am proposing in this book. Only "who is more persuasive" is what will be included in the mathematical model. This is represented as "ideological capacity" in this book, where the "degree of persuasion" is shown and can be expressed quantitatively.

How to quantify it specifically is not discussed in detail in this book, and will be discussed in the next publication on systematic mathematical political science. However, even if only a rough understanding of the content of this book is achieved, it can be seen that the starting point of the mathematical model relies on values such as armed capacity, economic capacity, and ideological capacity. The most difficult point here is quantifying ideological capacity. However, we know that people's happiness levels can be quantified using something like the happiness index. Despite being known to be imperfect, there still exists a method of quantification and it has the potential to be improved in the future. Therefore, it is certain that the ideological capacity of each political actor can also be quantified. Once the value of ideological capacity is measured by a quantifiable method and adjusted to match the overall theoretical system, it should be sufficient.

It may not be easy to undertake such a task, but one thing is clear. It is better to explain political phenomena through a mathe- matical model than through complex and vague concepts like they are explained now. And ultimately, even if it fails, there is value in trying. This is also why I partially present the mathematical model in this book.

It may not be an easy task, but one thing is certain. Using such a mathematical model to explain political phenomena is better than explaining them with complex and vague concepts as it is now. And even if it fails in the end, it is worth trying. This is also why I partially present the mathematical model in this book.